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Evidence linking rapid Arctic warming to mid-latitude weather patterns
- States that the emergence of Arctic amplification—the enhanced sensitivity of high-latitude temperature to global warming—in only the last 10–20 years presents a challenge to identifying statistically robust atmospheric responses using observations
- Presents new metrics and evidence that suggest disproportionate Arctic warming—and resulting weakening of the poleward temperature gradient—is causing the Northern Hemisphere circulation to assume a more meridional character (i.e. wavier), although not uniformly in space or by season, and that highly amplified jet-stream patterns are occurring more frequently
- Further analysis based on self-organizing maps supports this finding
- States that these changes in circulation are expected to lead to persistent weather patterns that are known to cause extreme weather events
- Concludes that as emissions of greenhouse gases continue unabated, therefore, the continued amplification of Arctic warming should favor an increased occurrence of extreme events caused by prolonged weather conditions
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