Science Source

Contribution of relative sea-level rise to historical hurricane flooding in New York City

States flooding during hurricanes is a hazard for New York City
States flood height is determined by storm surge characteristics, timing (high or low tide) and relative sea-level (RSL) change
Estimates the contribution from these factors for seven historical hurricanes (1788–2012) that caused flooding in New York City
Supplements measurements from The Battery tide gauge and historical accounts with a RSL reconstruction from Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
Reconstructs RSL from foraminifera preserved in salt-marsh sediment dated using marker horizons of lead and copper pollution and 137Cs activity. Finds that RSL rose by 56 cm between the 1788 hurricane and Hurricane Sandy in 2012, including 15 cm from glacio-isostatic adjustment
Results indicate that storm surge characteristics and timing with respect to astronomical tides remain the dominant factors in determining flood height; however, RSL rise will raise the base level for flood heights in New York City and exacerbate flooding caused by future hurricanes