Science Source

Combustion of available fossil fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet

States that the Antarctic Ice Sheet stores water equivalent to 58 m in global sea-level rise
Shows in simulations using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model that burning the currently attainable fossil fuel resources is sufficient to eliminate the ice sheet
Finds that with cumulative fossil fuel emissions of 10,000 gigatonnes of carbon (GtC), Antarctica is projected to become almost ice-free with an average contribution to sea-level rise exceeding 3 m per century during the first millennium
Finds, consistent with recent observations and simulations, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet becomes unstable with 600 to 800 GtC of additional carbon emissions
Finds that beyond this additional carbon release, the destabilization of ice basins in both West and East Antarctica results in a threshold increase in global sea level
Concludes that unabated carbon emissions thus threaten the Antarctic Ice Sheet in its entirety with associated sea-level rise that far exceeds that of all other possible sources