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Regional climate change scenarios over South Asia in the CMIP5 coupled climate model simulations
- Evaluates the performance of a suite of state-of-art coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) in their representation of regional characteristics of hydrological cycle and temperature over South Asia
- Presents temperature and hydrological cycle scenarios based on AOGCM experiments conducted for two types of future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) extending up to the end of 21st century
- States the AOGCMs, despite their relatively coarse resolution, have shown a reasonable skill in depicting the hydrological cycle over the South Asian region
- Finds the regional climate change scenarios of temperature (T), atmospheric water balance components, precipitation, moisture convergence and evaporation (P, C and E) up to the end of the 21st century based on CMIP5 modeling experiments conducted for (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) indicate marked increase in both rainfall and temperature into the 21st century, particularly becoming conspicuous after the 2050s
- Finds model simulations under scenarios of increased greenhouse gas concentrations suggests that the intensification of the hydrological cycle is driven mainly by the increased moisture convergence due to increase in the water holding capacity of the atmosphere in a warmer environment
- Notes that quantitative estimates still have large uncertainties associated with them, though five best model mean reveals the general consensus among the AOGCM results and gives the best estimate of the future projection over the South Asian monsoon region
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