Science Source

Thermodynamic and Dynamic Mechanisms for Large-Scale Changes in the Hydrological Cycle in Response to Global Warming

Analyzes the mechanisms of changes in the large-scale hydrological cycle projected by 15 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 and used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment Report
Evaluates the contributions to changes in precipitation minus evaporation, P − E, caused thermodynamically by changes in specific humidity, dynamically by changes in circulation, and by changes in moisture transports by transient eddies
Holds that the projected change in P − E involves an intensification of the existing pattern of P − E with wet areas [the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and mid- to high latitudes] getting wetter and arid and semiarid regions of the subtropics getting drier
Finds the accentuation of the twentieth-century pattern of P − E is in part explained by increases in specific humidity via both advection and divergence terms
Finds that weakening of the tropical divergent circulation partially opposes the thermodynamic contribution by creating a tendency to decreased P − E in the ITCZ and to increased P − E in the descending branches of the Walker and Hadley cells
Finds the changing mean circulation also causes decreased P − E on the poleward flanks of the subtropics because the descending branch of the Hadley Cell expands and the midlatitude meridional circulation cell shifts poleward
Finds that an increase in poleward moisture transport by transient eddies also contributes to subtropical drying and poleward moistening
Results suggest the thermodynamic contribution to changing P − E, arising from increased specific humidity, is almost entirely accounted for by atmospheric warming under fixed relative humidity