Science Source
Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era
- Presents the first estimate of global sea-level (GSL) change over the last ∼3,000 years that is based upon statistical synthesis of a global database of regional sea-level reconstructions
- States GSL varied by ∼±8 cm over the pre-Industrial Common Era, with a notable decline over 1000–1400 CE coinciding with ∼0.2 °C of global cooling
- Finds the 20th century rise was extremely likely faster than during any of the 27 previous centuries
- Modeling indicates that without global warming, GSL in the 20th century very likely would have risen by between −3 cm and +7 cm, rather than the ∼14 cm observed
- Stated another way, it finds that in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed 13.8±1.513.8±1.5 cm
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