Science Source

The Relationship between Sea Surface Temperature and Maximum Intensification Rate of Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic

Analyzes the relationship between sea surface temperatures and intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic
Shows a nonlinear increasing trend in the maximum potential intensification rate (MPIR) with increasing sea surface temperature (SST), with a more rapid increasing trend when SST is higher than 27°C
Finds that about 28% of intensifying TCs over the North Atlantic reached 50% of their MPIR and only 7% reached 80% of their MPIR at the time when they were at their lifetime maximum intensification rates
Finds that a TC tended to have a larger intensification rate when it was located in regions with higher SST and lower vertical wind shear (VWS)
- This indicates that although the MPIR–SST relationship is much stronger than that for the IR rate versus SST for most TCs, the actual intensification rate of a TC is determined by not only the SST but also other environmental effects, such as VWS
Additional results from a simplified dynamical system previously developed for TC intensity prediction suggest an SST-dependent TC MPIR, similar to that fitted from observations