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Projections of seasonal patterns in temperature- related deaths for Manhattan, New York

States that daily death counts in cities increase markedly when temperatures reach levels that are very high relative to what is normal in a given location
States that relatively cold temperatures also seem to carry risk
States net temperature-related mortality reamins uncertain as rising temperatures may result in more heat-related mortality but may also reduce cold-related mortality
Uses 16 downscaled global climate models and two emissions scenarios to estimate present and future seasonal patterns in temperature-related mortality in Manhattan, New York
Finds that all 32 projections yielded warm-season increases and cold-season decreases in temperature-related mortality, with positive net annual temperature-related deaths in all cases
Monthly analyses show that the largest percentage increases may occur in May and September
Results suggest that, over a range of models and scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, increases in heat-related mortality could outweigh reductions in cold-related mortality, with shifting seasonal patterns