Science Source
A projection of changes in landfalling atmospheric river frequency and extreme precipitation over western North America from the Large Ensemble CESM simulations
- Analyses simulations from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble project to investigate the impact of global warming on atmospheric rivers (ARs) making landfall in western North America
- Models project a 35 percent in the number of landfalling AR days in 2080-2100 compared to 1980-2000 (under Representative concentration pathway 8.5)
- Also finds that Western North America and Canada can expect a 28 percent increase in the number of extreme precipitation days, thanks to global climate warming
- States the significantly larger mean changes compared to internal variability, and effects of model biases highlight the robust AR responses to global warming
