Science Source

One hundred years of Arctic surface temperature variation due to anthropogenic influence

Observations show that Arctic-average surface temperature increased from 1900 to 1940, decreased from 1940 to 1970, and increased from 1970 to present
Uses new observational data and improved climate models employing observed natural and anthropogenic forcings and demonstrates that contributions from greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, along with explosive volcanic eruptions, explain most of this observed variation in Arctic surface temperature since 1900
Finds that climate model simulations without natural and anthropogenic forcings indicate very low probabilities that the observed trends in each of these periods were due to internal climate variability alone