Science Source

Multimodel Detection and Attribution of Extreme Temperature Changes

Conducts optimal fingerprinting analyses using 12 climate models integrated under anthropogenic-only forcing or natural plus anthropogenic forcing
Compares observed and simulated changes in annual extreme temperature indices of coldest night and day (TNn and TXn) and warmest night and day (TNx and TXx) from 1951 to 2000
Detects the anthropogenic signal in global and northern continental means of all four indices, albeit less robustly for TXx, which is consistent with previous findings
Finds the detected anthropogenic signals to be separable from natural forcing influence at the global scale and to a lesser extent at continental and subcontinental scales
Finds that detection occurs more frequently in TNx and TNn than in other indices, particularly at smaller scales, supporting previous studies based on different methods