Monitoring global carbon emissions in 2021

Study key findings & significance

• Following record-level declines in 2020, near-real-time data indicate that global CO₂ emissions rebounded by 4.8% in 2021, reaching 34.9 GtCO₂.
• These 2021 emissions consumed 8.7% of the remaining carbon budget for limiting anthropogenic warming to 1.5 °C, which if current trajectories continue, might be used up in 9.5 years at 67% likelihood.

Abstract

Global CO₂ emissions have exhibited a rapid increase (Fig. 1). However, embedded within this long-term trend are interannual fluctuations arising from global energy, finance and health crises. For example, during 2020, global lockdowns owing to the COVID-19 pandemic temporarily reduced CO₂ emissions^1,2. The Carbon Monitor program^1,3 — which provides near-real-time daily global CO₂ emissions from power generation (29 countries), industry (73 countries), road transportation (406 cities), aviation and maritime transportation, and commercial and residential sectors (206 countries) — offers an opportunity to track the evolution of these CO₂ emissions, and in doing so, assess remaining carbon budgets and progress in reaching the Paris Agreement. Here, we document the status of CO₂ and fossil CH₄ emissions for 2021, revealing a rebound from COVID-related 2020 reductions and a corresponding decrease in the remaining CO₂ budget.