Science Source
Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California’s rainfall
- States that, as during previous dry periods, the 2012 to 2016 California drought featured precipitation-inducing winter storms that were steered away from California by a persistent atmospheric ridging system in the North Pacific
- Identifies a new link between Arctic sea-ice loss and the North Pacific geopotential ridge development
- Finds that, in a two-step teleconnection, sea-ice changes lead to reorganization of tropical convection that in turn triggers an anticyclonic response over the North Pacific, resulting in significant drying over California
- These findings suggest that the ability of climate models to accurately estimate future precipitation changes over California is also linked to the fidelity with which future sea-ice changes are simulated
- Concludes that sea-ice loss of the magnitude expected in the next decades could substantially impact California’s precipitation, thus highlighting another mechanism by which human-caused climate change could exacerbate future California droughts
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