Science Source

Estimations of Hazardous Convective Weather in the United States Using Dynamical Downscaling

Uses high-resolution (4 km; hourly) regional climate modeling to resolve March–May hazardous convective weather east of the U.S. Continental Divide for a historical climate period (1980–90)
Uses a hazardous convective weather model proxy to depict occurrences of tornadoes, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts, and large hail at hourly intervals during the period of record.
The regional climate model does an admirable job of replicating the seasonal spatial shifts of hazardous convective weather occurrence during the months examined
Additionally, the interannual variability and diurnal progression of observed severe weather reports closely mimic cycles produced by the regional model
This is the first study to use coarse-resolution global climate model data to force a high-resolution regional model with continuous seasonal integration in the United States for purposes of resolving severe convection
Concludes that dynamical downscaling play an integral role in measuring climatological distributions of severe weather, both in historical and future climates