Science Source

Attribution of extreme events in Arctic sea ice extent

States that Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) has decreased over recent decades, with record-setting minimum events in 2007 and again in 2012
Performs a detection and attribution analysis for trends in SIE anomalies over the observed period
The main objective of this study is an event attribution analysis for extreme minimum events in Arctic SIE; although focus is placed on the 2012 event, the results are generalized to extreme events of other magnitudes, including both past and potential future extremes
Uses several ensembles of model responses, including two single-model large ensembles
Finds that an extreme SIE minimum of the magnitude seen in 2012 is consistent with a scenario including anthropogenic influence and is extremely unlikely in a scenario excluding anthropogenic influence
Concludes that the 2012 Arctic sea ice minimum provides a counterexample to the often-quoted idea that individual extreme events cannot be attributed to human influence