Accelerated Transition Between Dry and Wet Periods in a Warming Climate

Study key findings & significance

• Approximately three-fifths (59%) of global land area are projected to experience accelerated transition between dry and wet periods

• Southern Asia suffers the most from severe transition between dry and wet periods

• Enhanced precipitation and potential evapotranspiration variabilities contribute to the accelerated dry-to-wet transitions

Plain Language Summary

The consecutive occurrence of droughts and floods has widespread impacts on agriculture, the ecosystem, and the environment. Here we examine the changes in frequency, intensity, and elapsed time of transitions between dry and wet periods under a warming climate, based on observations and an ensemble of 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate simulations. We find that approximately 59% of global land area are expected to experience a shorter transition time between dry and wet periods. Southern Asia suffers the most severe dry-to-wet transition. Furthermore, our findings reveal that enhanced potential evapotranspiration (PET) variability contributes to the accelerated transition between dry and wet periods over Southern Asia, and the acceleration of dry-to-wet transitions in Southern North America is associated with an increase in precipitation and PET variabilities as climate warms.