Science Source
Impact of Climate Variability on Runoff in the North-Central United States
- States that large changes in runoff in the north-central United States have occurred during the past century, with larger floods and increases in runoff tending to occur from the 1970s to the present
- States that the attribution of these changes is a subject of much interest
- Uses long-term precipitation, temperature, and streamflow records to compare changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) to changes in runoff within 25 stream basins
- The basins studied were organized into four groups, each one representing basins similar in topography, climate, and historic patterns of runoff
- Precipitation, PET, and runoff data were adjusted for near-decadal scale variability to examine longer-term changes
- A nonlinear water-balance analysis shows that changes in precipitation and PET explain the majority of multidecadal spatial/temporal variability of runoff and flood magnitudes, with precipitation being the dominant driver
- Historical changes in climate and runoff in the region appear to be more consistent with complex transient shifts in seasonal climatic conditions than with gradual climate chang
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