Science Source
Rapid attribution of the August 2016 flood-inducing extreme precipitation in south Louisiana to climate change
Note: The findings presented in this study were originally done as part of a rapid attribution analysis in September 2016, available here
- Finds that the probability of a 3-day precipitation extreme like the event observed August 12th-14th occurring anywhere in the Central Gulf Coast region has increased and the increase is due to human-caused climate change
- Finds that an event like this is now expected to occur at least 40 percent more often than it was in our pre-industrial past
- Finds that the increase in probability corresponds to an increase in intensity of roughly 10%
- Finds that the probability for a comparable three-day extreme precipitation event at a single station as high as what was observed August 12-14 (25.5 inches) is somewhere between a 1-in-450 year and a 1-in-1450 year event (note: it was not the maximum rainfall at a single station that resulted in such catastrophic flooding, it was the total rainfall over the entire affected area)
- States that the event is best characterized as a 1-in-550 year event locally
- States that an event like this currently occurs somewhere along the Central U.S. Gulf Coast region about once every 30 years (between 11 and 110 years)
Related Content
Headline
![](/sites/default/files/styles/card_resource/public/headlines/headline_image_138.png?itok=cTImb8ZK)
Jan 10, 2017 | NOAA Climate.gov
2016: A historic year for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in U.S.
Science Source
| Geophysical Research Letters
Recent trends in U.S. flood risk
Slater, Louise J., Villarini et al
Real Time Data
![](/sites/default/files/styles/card_resource/public/data/thumbnail_0.png?itok=wErbP1u-)
Oct 13, 2016 | NOAA
US Precipitation Frequency Data Server
Science Source
| Journal of Climate
Global Water Vapor Trend from 1988 to 2011 and Its Diurnal Asymmetry Based on GPS, Radiosonde, and Microwave Satellite Measurements
Wang, Dai, and Mears