Science Source

Climate change impact on hydroclimate regimes and extremes over Andean basins in the central-southern Chile

Examines the projections of hydroclimatic regimes and extremes over Andean basins in central Chile (∼ 30–40 S)
Uses daily precipitation and temperature data based on observations to drive and validate the VIC macro-scale hydrological model in the region of interest at a 0.25 × 0.25 degree resolution
Model simulations indicate decreases in annual runoff of about 40 % by the end of the century, larger that the projected precipitation decreases (up to 30 %)
Finds that center timing of runoff shifts to earlier dates, 3–5 weeks by the end of the century
Projects that the Andes snowpack will be less than half of the reference period by mid-century
Finds that the probability of having extended droughts, such as the recently experienced mega-drought (2010–2015), increases to up to 5 events/100 years
Finds, on the other hand, an increase in the frequency of flood events
Finds that the estimated return periods of annual maximum runoff events depict more drastic changes and increase in the flood risk as longer return periods are considered (e.g. 25-yr and 50-yr)