Science Source

Intensification of landfalling typhoons over the northwest Pacific since the late 1970s

States that intensity changes in landfalling typhoons are of great concern to East and Southeast Asian countries
States inconsistencies among different data sets have challenged the scientific understanding of regional changes in typhoon intensity
Applies a cluster analysis to bias-corrected data and show that, over the past 37 years, typhoons that strike East and Southeast Asia have intensified by 12–15%, with the proportion of storms of categories 4 and 5 having doubled or even tripled
Finds, in contrast, that typhoons staying over the open ocean have experienced only modest changes
Finds that the increased intensity of landfalling typhoons is due to strengthened intensification rates, which in turn are tied to locally enhanced ocean surface warming on the rim of East and Southeast Asia
The projected ocean surface warming pattern under increasing greenhouse gas forcing suggests that typhoons striking eastern mainland China, Taiwan, Korea and Japan will intensify further
States that given disproportionate damages by intense typhoons this represents a heightened threat to people and properties in the region